Photo Credit - UNLV Athletics
Here we go again.
For the fifth time since 2023, and the third straight year with a trophy on the line, UNLV and Boise State are staring each other down with the Mountain West title up for grabs.
Same matchup. Same blue turf. Completely different stakes.
UNLV walks in at 10-2, back-to-back 10-win seasons for the first time in program history, the No. 1 offense in the league, and the conference leaders in total offense, total first downs, and third-down defense.
Boise walks in chasing a third straight Mountain West title, at home, with Maddux Madsen back as the starting quarterback and a fanbase that has spent all week hunting for one more sellout on the blue.
This is the game both programs have been orbiting for a year.
How We Got Back Here
UNLV did its part: beat down Nevada in Reno, kept the Fremont Cannon red, and finished 6-2 in the Mountain West.
That win dropped the league into another tiebreaker mess with UNLV, Boise State, San Diego State and New Mexico all at 6-2.
The computers (SP+, SOR, KPI, SportSource, etc.) spit out:
UNLV: No. 1
Boise State: No. 2
Then the tiebreaker flipped to head-to-head.
October 18: Boise 56, UNLV 31.
Result: the Rebels are headed back to the only place they haven’t been able to finish the job.
And they know it.
“I’ve been here for 2-10, I’ve been here for back-to-back 10-win seasons, third straight championship game, and I have yet to beat these guys,” - Marsel McDuffie. “For me, this one’s number one.”
For McDuffie, it’s Boise for a third time. For Anthony Colandrea, it’s his first conference title game at any level. “I’ve never played in a championship game, high school or college.
This is the biggest one I’ve ever played in.”
The First Meeting And Why It Won’t Look Exactly the Same
Boise’s October win was as clean as it gets.
Madsen: 4 TD, 253 yards
Dylan Riley: 201 rushing yards, two long scores
Total yards: 558
Explosives: 11 plays of 20+
UNLV punted on 4th-and-1 from its own 37 down 28-24. Boise scored on the next three drives and turned a tight game into a blowout.
Defensively, that was rock bottom:
9.8 yards per play
Broken fits on the edge
Coverage busts that left receivers alone by 20 yards
No communication, no physicality
Dan Mullen didn’t sugarcoat how bad the mistakes were when he went back and re-watched it. Guys literally lined up on the wrong side of the field on some of those explosives.
Boise did what a championship program does: took advantage and buried UNLV.
But that game also became the pivot point for the season.
A Different UNLV Defense
Since that night, the identity on that side of the ball has shifted.
McDuffie’s explanation is simple: “The main thing is just us communicating… D-line, linebackers, and secondary. Pre-snap, post-snap, during the play. That’s what we’ve been focusing on, and it’s paying off for us.”
The numbers back it up:
Opponent 3rd-Down Conversions:
29.3% - best in the Mountain West (42/143)
Sacks: 28 (4th in MW)
Team Interceptions: 13 (T-3rd in MW)
Passes Defended:
Aamaris Brown: 11 PD (7 BRUP, 4 INT)
Laterrance Welch: 4 INT
Spencer Danielson sees it too:
Called UNLV “one of the top third-down defenses in the country”
Highlighted McDuffie as one of the best linebackers in the league
Pointed out #1 (Tunmise Adeleye) as a real problem off the edge
Praised a secondary that “doesn’t just survive the down, they attack the ball”
The plan is pretty clear: fewer coverage busts, more “good ball” as Mullen calls it — where if Boise makes a play, it’s because they earn it, not because a Rebel is on the wrong hash.
Where UNLV’s Offense Sits Going Into Boise
This is the most complete Rebel offense Boise has seen.
Colandrea – The Engine
238/349 (68.2%)
3,050 passing yards (team total 3,103 – most in MW passing offense)
22 TD / 8 INT
8.7 yards per attempt
86-yard long
Sacked only 22 times across 356 attempts
Add in:
106 carries, 556 rushing yards, 8 rushing TD
And he leads the Mountain West in total offense:
3,605 yards
300.4 yards per game
Danielson didn’t hold back: “He’s arguably playing better than almost anybody in our entire conference. Everything runs through him.”
Jai’Den “Jet” Thomas – The Weapon Boise Has to Deal With
From the league rushing leaders:
127 carries, 944 yards
7.4 yards per carry
12 TD
Long of 70
105.0 all-purpose yards per game (4th in MW)
He’s 3rd in the league in rushing and 4th in all-purpose yards, without being overused. Mullen’s “load management” early in the year now looks smart. Thomas is healthy, explosive, and fresh.
The Receivers – More Than One Guy, But One Clear WR1
UNLV spreads it around, 12 players with double-digit catches, but three names pop:
Jaden Bradley
51 catches, 834 yards, 4 TD
16.4 yards per catch, long of 56
69.5 yards/game (4th in MW)
Troy Omeire
27 catches, 472 yards, 4 TD
Daejon Reynolds
29 catches, 431 yards, 5 TD, 86-yard long
Throw in RB usage:
Thomas: 35 catches, 211 yards
Keyvone Lee: 17 for 144
JoJo Earle: 16 for 173
This is a deep room that all expect the ball, which is exactly how Mullen wants it.
Situational Dominance
Conference team stats:
First Downs:
UNLV: 285 (No. 1 in MW)
124 by rush, 131 by pass, 30 by penalty
3rd-Down Offense:
69/144 (47.9%) - No. 2 in MW, only behind Air Force
4th-Down Offense:
11/19 (57.9%) – No. 3 in MW, but with room to be more aggressive
Time of Possession:
31:07 per game - 5th in MW
Much better post-Boise as the defense forces more punts and the offense stays on schedule.
Kicking:
Ramon Villela: 54/54 on PATs, 14/18 on FGs, long 50
You can actually lean on the kicking game now, which hasn’t always been true here.
Boise State’s Profile
Offense
Boise comes in with a top-3 offense in the league by yards.
Maddux Madsen: 1994 yards, 15 TD, 7 INT
Riley Dylan: 1,016 rushing yards (4th in MW), 10 TD
Sire Gaines: 731 rushing yards (7th in MW), 7 TD
The identity hasn’t changed:
Downhill, physical run game
Play-action off it, hunting deep shots and one-on-ones
Danielson made it crystal clear: if Madsen is healthy, he starts. “Maddox is our starting quarterback, and if Maddox is healthy, Maddox is going to be rolling… leadership, decision-making, playmaking.”
He hasn’t played in a month, but Mullen compared his return to a Willis Reed moment, the emotional jolt of seeing QB1 jog out of the tunnel.
That matters on the blue.
Defense
Boise’s defense is built from the back forward:
Top-3 in total defense in the league by yards allowed
Strong pass defense, more vulnerable against efficient run games
21 sacks (7th in MW)
14 interceptions (2nd in MW)
Key names:
A’Marion McCoy: 4 INT, 82 yards, 2 pick-sixes
Jeremiah Earby: 4 INT, 37 yards
Ty Benefield: 92 tackles
Ty Benfield: their tone-setting safety, relentless and ultra-prepared.
They play a lot of man, they disguise well, and they attack the ball in the air. Spencer is not shy about saying it: protecting the football is at a premium Friday.
UNLV Offense vs Boise Defense
This side of the ball is strength on strength.
UNLV advantages:
Best total offense in the league
Best total offense AND top-2 third-down offense in the matchup
Colandrea is the best QB Boise has seen in-league this year by total production
Jet Thomas’ efficiency (7.4 YPC) against a front that’s allowed over 160 rush yards per game
If UNLV:
Keeps Colandrea clean (22 sacks allowed in 12 games is solid)
Gets 18–22 touches for Thomas (runs + passes)
Stays aggressive on 4th and short
…they can put real strain on Bronco Nation early and quiet that building down.
Boise’s path defensively is obvious too:
Try to win matchups outside with their corners
Junk up the run game with movement and different looks up front
Force Colandrea into tight-window throws and hope their DBs win the ball in the air
Turnovers are the swing stat here:
Boise: 14 INT
UNLV: 13 INT thrown by the team? No — 8 by Colandrea, 0 by the others
If Colandrea keeps it to 0 or 1 turnover, UNLV can win this side of the matchup.
Boise Offense vs UNLV Defense
Boise absolutely torched UNLV the first time with:
Run fits out of whack
Edges soft against Riley
Coverage busts on deep play-action
That cannot happen Friday.
The good news for UNLV:
The communication McDuffie talked about is real. They’re getting lined up correctly and playing faster.
Adeleye (6 sacks) gives them a real closer off the edge.
McDuffie (94 tackles, 2 FR) is cleaner with his fits and angles.
Brown (4 INT, 11 PBU) and Welch (4 INT) give them two corners who can make Madsen pay if he’s a hair late after a month off.
The bad news:
Boise’s run game travels.
If UNLV duplicates the offsides and discipline issues they showed vs Nevada, Madsen will live in 2nd-and-5 all night and the whole playbook stays open.
McDuffie knows exactly what this looks like: “It’s gonna be a heavyweight fight… They’re not gonna lay down and make it easy for us. We just gotta stay even, can’t get too high or too low.”
This is where UNLV’s No. 1 third-down defense has to show up.
Boise had 13 explosive plays vs Utah State and still ended up just 1–10 on 3rd down: that’s an odd combination. If UNLV can:
Keep Boise behind the chains on early downs
Force 3rd-and-7+ and lean on their disguise and pressure packages
…they have a real chance to flip the script from October.
This isn’t a fun section for UNLV, but it’s real.
From conference stats:
Most penalized team in the league:
93 penalties, 817 yards (68.1 yards/game)
Mullen called the offsides vs Nevada “embarrassing” and McDuffie said they’ve been hammering keying the ball and staying locked in all week.
The flip side:
UNLV draws more opponent penalty yards than anyone in the MW:
88 opponent flags for 803 yards (66.9 yards/game)
So you’ve basically got the league’s most penalized team on both sides of the ledger.
In a championship game, one or two dumb penalties, an offsides on 4th-and-4, a late hit along the sideline, a P.I. bailing out 3rd-and-15, is often the difference.
Intangibles and Emotions
Both sides are fully aware of what this is.
Danielson: “If you need to be motivated to go play in a championship game Friday night, you don’t belong playing football.”
Mullen: “There are only 10 teams that are going to have this opportunity this year…
We’ve made the final 10.”
McDuffie has called this the biggest game of his career. Colandrea has never been on this stage. A huge chunk of this roster is in year one in the program, and yet they’re the only 10-win team in the league and sitting in a title game on the road.
Add in the history:
UNLV has never beaten Boise on the blue.
Boise is trying to leave the Mountain West with three straight trophies.
Nobody on either sideline needs a manufactured storyline this week.
Keys to the Game
Explosives Allowed (Again): If Boise gets to 8+ explosives like last time, it’s probably over. Keep them to 5 or fewer, and UNLV’s offense can control the game.
3rd Down Battle
UNLV offense: 47.9%
UNLV defense: 29.3% allowed (best in MW)
Whoever wins 3rd down likely wins the night.
Madsen – Rhythm vs Rust: First game in a month. On time and comfortable? UNLV’s back seven is in for a long night. If he’s even slightly late, Brown/Welch have proven they can flip a game.
Jet’s Touch Count: Thomas had 11 carries in the first meeting. That cannot happen again. 18-25 touches (runs + targets) is the sweet spot.
4th-Down Aggression: The 4th-and-1 punt in October still hangs over this matchup. You don’t beat Boise by punting out of fear.
Penalty Discipline: You can’t give Boise free plays and free yards at home, especially not on 3rd and 4th down.
Red-Zone Execution: UNLV’s defense has quietly toughened up inside the 20 since Boise. Field goals vs touchdowns in that area will decide a ring.
Final Thoughts
This isn’t the same UNLV team that walked into Boise in October.
The defense communicates now.
The explosive-play leak has slowed.
The third-down numbers are elite on both sides of the ball.
The offense has the conference’s best QB, a top-3 back, a top-5 receiver, and a kicker who doesn’t flinch.
Boise is still Boise. They’ve got the rings, the banners, the blue turf, the culture, and their starting quarterback back just in time. They’re at home. They’ve been here before. They expect to win this game.
UNLV is walking in with:
The better season to this point.
The more complete offense.
A defense that’s playing its best ball in December.
A locker room full of guys who, in McDuffie’s words, are treating this as the biggest game of their lives.
This is the best shot UNLV has ever had to beat Boise in Boise.
Now it’s about 60 minutes of ball, no excuses, no ghosts, no what-ifs.
Heavyweight fight. Blue turf. Trophy on the line.
Time to see if UNLV is finally ready to kick the door down.
