LAS VEGAS — The Lady Rebels return from the holiday break Wednesday afternoon with momentum, history, and positioning on their side, hosting Fresno State in a New Year’s Eve matinee at The Pavilion as Mountain West play resumes.

Tipoff is set for 12 p.m. PT, with UNLV sitting 7-5 overall and 2-0 in conference, while Fresno State arrives 7-6 and 1-1. It’s the first of two regular-season meetings, with the return trip to Fresno scheduled for Feb. 28.

UNLV hasn’t played since Dec. 20, but the last impression still matters. The Lady Rebels controlled the pace from the opening tip and never let go in an 89-71 win over New Mexico, a performance that looked less like a nonconference tune-up and more like a team settling into conference identity. Fresno State also last played on Dec. 20, grinding out a 53–36 win over Wyoming that reinforced exactly who the Bulldogs are and who they are not.

Recent history has been one-sided. UNLV leads the all-time series 28-22 and has won nine straight against Fresno State, including multiple double-digit results under head coach Lindy La Rocque. That run includes last March’s 83-35 Mountain West tournament quarterfinal blowout, a game that effectively ended the matchup before it could breathe.

Still, Fresno State doesn’t disappear quietly. The Bulldogs don’t play fast, and they don’t chase the arc. They lean on defense, physicality, and second chances, the kind of formula that shortens games and punishes teams that lose discipline.

Fresno State averages 61.7 points per game, but allows just 56.2, one of the better defensive marks in the league. Opponents shoot under 40% from the floor and just 26.8% from three, a product of aggressive closeouts and help that collapses driving lanes. The Bulldogs also create extra possessions, pulling down 12.7 offensive rebounds per game, often turning missed shots into extended pressure.

That approach comes with risk. Fresno State commits 20 fouls per game and averages 18 turnovers, meaning physical defense can quickly turn into free points if the opponent stays patient. Pressure works — until it doesn’t.

That’s where UNLV’s edge has quietly lived this season.

The Lady Rebels don’t overwhelm teams statistically. They control them situationally. UNLV averages 65.8 points per game and allows 64.5, but the separation shows up at the margins, especially at the free-throw line. UNLV shoots 74% from the stripe and averages nearly 11 made free throws per game, compared with just 7.3 by opponents. Against a team like Fresno State, that math matters.

Rebounding has been just as steady. UNLV averages 38.5 rebounds per game, a modest edge that becomes significant against a Bulldogs team built on second chances.

The balance UNLV hopes to carry forward showed clearly against New Mexico. Four Lady Rebels scored in double figures, and the offense never stalled into isolation. Graduate transfer Destiny Leo delivered her most complete game of the season, scoring 20 points while hitting six of eight from beyond the arc. Meadow Roland added 18 points and five assists, stretching the floor without sacrificing interior presence. Shelbee Brown controlled the glass with 16 points and 14 rebounds, and Aaliyah Alexander steadied possessions with 13 points and five assists.

Roland continues to anchor UNLV’s nightly floor, averaging 13.6 points and 8.6 rebounds, while Brown leads the team at 9.2 rebounds per game and sets the defensive tone. Alexander remains the connective piece, directing offense without forcing it. Leo, Mariah Elohim, and Teagan Colvin give UNLV enough perimeter shooting to punish defenses that overcommit inside.

Fresno State counters with balance rather than volume. Forward Ashlyn Rean leads the Bulldogs at 12.7 points and 7.0 rebounds per game, finishing efficiently around the rim. Guard Emilia Long averages 12.0 points with nearly three steals per game, supplying energy and disruption but also carrying turnover risk when pressured. Danae Powell provides spacing, shooting 48.6% from three, though attempts are selective.

Wednesday’s game also sits at an inflection point on the calendar. For UNLV, it opens a compressed stretch, five games in 14 days, with road trips to Air Force, Wyoming, and New Mexico looming. For Fresno State, the path doesn’t soften either, with Colorado State, Nevada, Boise State, and New Mexico ahead.

The New Year’s Eve matinee also adds a community element, with youth campers participating in halftime activities and promotional giveaways scheduled throughout the afternoon. The game will air locally on the Silver State Sports and Entertainment Network and stream on the Mountain West Network.

On the floor, the equation is straightforward.

Fresno State needs to shrink the game: limit fouls, own the glass, and turn UNLV possessions into extended half-court sequences. UNLV, meanwhile, will look to do what it did against New Mexico: value the ball, attack the paint, convert at the line, and let discipline create separation.

Recent history suggests that formula has favored the Lady Rebels.

Whether it holds again may come down to how quickly UNLV reclaims rhythm after the break and whether Fresno State can disrupt control before it settles in.